Friday, 30 April 2010

The Contrarian Freeroll Strategy

reeI'm writing this, because it still confounds me. I don't play a lot of freerolls anymore, the investment of several hours for the sake of pennies doesn't interest me anymore, and the standard of play is so bad, that I feel that it's a bad influence on play in profitable MTT's.

Don't get me wrong, Freerolls can be a lot of fun, but I read all the articles, and played them out, and I found that the advice given… simply does not work.. I assumed it was because I played bad. But I recently conducted a couple of experiments, and frankly the results did NOT surprise me.

The typical freeroll advice is to play tight tight tight, wait for premiums and push them aggressively. However, I feel the standard of play in freerolls was such that this is counter productive in the long run.
Raises of any amount get called so flippantly in these tournaments, that a 6xBB bet is called by four or five people. There is no poker hand which looks attractive with this many other players in the pot. People shout and scream about Aces getting busted constantly.. "I was 82% favourite!" etc etc.... not against 6 people buddy.
Against 5 or 6 players, any post flop raise will be called by those on a draw, regardless of pot odds, and those who flopped something bigger than aces already.

Of course theres little you can do about that, but after a couple of experiments I've come up with a new strategy that is working superbly when I do have to freeroll. I call it "Contrarian" strategy.

The first 20 minutes of a freeroll are key, people are looking to double up early, and to the observant player, you can spot those who are trying to do so with less than premium hands and position, and bluffing with air. These are your 'marks' to get into pots with, and there is always plenty to choose from. The kind of player you can trap into stacking off with second pair.
You are still playing close to premium hands, but I wouldn't turn down limping with weak hands like K10o, J9s.

Your first double up or bust is key, you haven't invested much time if you bust out. Your double up is just a step thou, its play money. Your next move is to try and call in position with ANY TWO HALF PLAYABLE CARDS. All suited connectors, even separated ones like 86s etc (which btw, happens to be a better hand than A8o). Avoid 92s etc still, but you are still going to try and get into lots of pots, with position being a highly key indicator.

The skill now involves knowing when and where to muck, a lot of the other players are not paying attention, but you must not get excited about hitting top pair with 78s on a 2 4 8 flop without a flush draw to go with it. Muck it if you meet any major resistance, calling is too weak and you will lose a lot of your "play" money by weak calling raises with it, and even more by re-raising, unless you are 99% sure you are winning. Chances are the next card will be a 10 J Q K A, and the 8 does not stand up to any further aggression.

With careful observation about player ranges, and aggression, there will be lots of "lucky" players like yourself pretty much. But as long as you are a better player, they are your next footup. You are looking to hit the flush or hidden straight or set, and don't be scared about representing it… a lot of these lucky players are not paying attention to even this. Straights are better in regards that they are harder for the bad players to see and they will stack off with two pair, or even one pair. When you hit that big hand, get as much money in the pot as possible, occasionally everyone will fold, but you will get called enough to make it a +ev play. Slowplaying is usually more dangerous than getting the money in early.

The entire point of this strategy is to avoid confrontation on big hands, and rather, sneak in with the smaller hands that can hit big flops. I am NOT interested in small pots, I'll take them when they come, I'm not even concerned with reasonable size pots.. I'm looking for the situations where the bad player will stack off against your nuts.

Once you hit Top 100 players in the tournament, or at roughly 3 or 4x average stack, slow down, the field will be getting smaller, with the good players prevailing with medium stacks after the luckbox donkeys have finally stacked off…. The point of my new strategy is to be in prime position to take those stacks in the first place. This is the key stage to the strategy… knowing when to shift gears back down. You are now in a normal tournament with a strong chipstack, this is where you wanted to be. Getting to this situation with just premiums is not as reliable bizarrely enough in this type of tournament.

The point being is that using this strategy, so far, the general pattern tends to be;

Double Up or Bust Out Stage (Luckbox Strategy!)
Up To 2600 chips or so
Limp In For Big Hands
2600 up to about 20,000
Standard Tournament Tight Play
20,000+

Any good tournament player will probably be reviled by this strategy, and a good portion of myself hates the idea of being a "luckbox" early on, and "any two cards" aggression afterwards, but so far I make deep runs to freerolls more often on this strategy than with my previous tight tight tight play.

If it isn't a freeroll, you will get torn apart doing this, it is a BAD MTT strategy normally……but Freerolls are very contrary. When it costs people nothing when they bust out, you have to take a different perspective, and this strat really allows you to enjoy the game more, than trying to grind out premiums to win a few cents.

My only addition to this is again contrary. Big stacks still have a few luckbox's, but luck will run out, and I would heartily recommend targeting any other big stacks on your table, getting away from danger, but stacking them off when they get a bit too frisky and throw their weight around. Some people can't resist putting another player all-in. Again, in a normal tournament you would be avoiding the big stack.. but freerolls are just not real MTT's… they play very very differently, which require a very very different strategy.

So if you wonder why your KK got busted.. again. That was me with my 86s. Sorry, but you should have raised more.

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