The Contrarian Freeroll Strategy

reeI'm writing this, because it still confounds me. I don't play a lot of freerolls anymore, the investment of several hours for the sake of pennies doesn't interest me anymore, and the standard of play is so bad, that I feel that it's a bad influence on play in profitable MTT's.

Don't get me wrong, Freerolls can be a lot of fun, but I read all the articles, and played them out, and I found that the advice given… simply does not work.. I assumed it was because I played bad. But I recently conducted a couple of experiments, and frankly the results did NOT surprise me.

The typical freeroll advice is to play tight tight tight, wait for premiums and push them aggressively. However, I feel the standard of play in freerolls was such that this is counter productive in the long run.
Raises of any amount get called so flippantly in these tournaments, that a 6xBB bet is called by four or five people. There is no poker hand which looks attractive with this many other players in the pot. People shout and scream about Aces getting busted constantly.. "I was 82% favourite!" etc etc.... not against 6 people buddy.
Against 5 or 6 players, any post flop raise will be called by those on a draw, regardless of pot odds, and those who flopped something bigger than aces already.

Of course theres little you can do about that, but after a couple of experiments I've come up with a new strategy that is working superbly when I do have to freeroll. I call it "Contrarian" strategy.

The first 20 minutes of a freeroll are key, people are looking to double up early, and to the observant player, you can spot those who are trying to do so with less than premium hands and position, and bluffing with air. These are your 'marks' to get into pots with, and there is always plenty to choose from. The kind of player you can trap into stacking off with second pair.
You are still playing close to premium hands, but I wouldn't turn down limping with weak hands like K10o, J9s.

Your first double up or bust is key, you haven't invested much time if you bust out. Your double up is just a step thou, its play money. Your next move is to try and call in position with ANY TWO HALF PLAYABLE CARDS. All suited connectors, even separated ones like 86s etc (which btw, happens to be a better hand than A8o). Avoid 92s etc still, but you are still going to try and get into lots of pots, with position being a highly key indicator.

The skill now involves knowing when and where to muck, a lot of the other players are not paying attention, but you must not get excited about hitting top pair with 78s on a 2 4 8 flop without a flush draw to go with it. Muck it if you meet any major resistance, calling is too weak and you will lose a lot of your "play" money by weak calling raises with it, and even more by re-raising, unless you are 99% sure you are winning. Chances are the next card will be a 10 J Q K A, and the 8 does not stand up to any further aggression.

With careful observation about player ranges, and aggression, there will be lots of "lucky" players like yourself pretty much. But as long as you are a better player, they are your next footup. You are looking to hit the flush or hidden straight or set, and don't be scared about representing it… a lot of these lucky players are not paying attention to even this. Straights are better in regards that they are harder for the bad players to see and they will stack off with two pair, or even one pair. When you hit that big hand, get as much money in the pot as possible, occasionally everyone will fold, but you will get called enough to make it a +ev play. Slowplaying is usually more dangerous than getting the money in early.

The entire point of this strategy is to avoid confrontation on big hands, and rather, sneak in with the smaller hands that can hit big flops. I am NOT interested in small pots, I'll take them when they come, I'm not even concerned with reasonable size pots.. I'm looking for the situations where the bad player will stack off against your nuts.

Once you hit Top 100 players in the tournament, or at roughly 3 or 4x average stack, slow down, the field will be getting smaller, with the good players prevailing with medium stacks after the luckbox donkeys have finally stacked off…. The point of my new strategy is to be in prime position to take those stacks in the first place. This is the key stage to the strategy… knowing when to shift gears back down. You are now in a normal tournament with a strong chipstack, this is where you wanted to be. Getting to this situation with just premiums is not as reliable bizarrely enough in this type of tournament.

The point being is that using this strategy, so far, the general pattern tends to be;

Double Up or Bust Out Stage (Luckbox Strategy!)
Up To 2600 chips or so
Limp In For Big Hands
2600 up to about 20,000
Standard Tournament Tight Play
20,000+

Any good tournament player will probably be reviled by this strategy, and a good portion of myself hates the idea of being a "luckbox" early on, and "any two cards" aggression afterwards, but so far I make deep runs to freerolls more often on this strategy than with my previous tight tight tight play.

If it isn't a freeroll, you will get torn apart doing this, it is a BAD MTT strategy normally……but Freerolls are very contrary. When it costs people nothing when they bust out, you have to take a different perspective, and this strat really allows you to enjoy the game more, than trying to grind out premiums to win a few cents.

My only addition to this is again contrary. Big stacks still have a few luckbox's, but luck will run out, and I would heartily recommend targeting any other big stacks on your table, getting away from danger, but stacking them off when they get a bit too frisky and throw their weight around. Some people can't resist putting another player all-in. Again, in a normal tournament you would be avoiding the big stack.. but freerolls are just not real MTT's… they play very very differently, which require a very very different strategy.

So if you wonder why your KK got busted.. again. That was me with my 86s. Sorry, but you should have raised more.

Happy Birthday. I'm 30. Hurray..............

Well, Its My Birthday.

I'm 30.

No Poker in this blog.

I kinda enjoyed being a twenty something, and the anxiety attacks over my, basic human phobia of death have only abated a little bit, attacking me with apathy, anger, and feelings of despair.

Needless to say, I'm not sure how I feel about this new decade of age I've entered.

Without being overly emo about this….. I still feel I haven't grown up yet, I would still happily spend my days playing games, running, jumping, climbing trees given half the chance, and the landmark of 30, is screaming at me to grow up.

Not sure I can do that. I like to think I'm a good father, but I often feel I'm at my best, when that childish whimsy and good nature comes through. Grown Up Me seems awfully dull.

Theres an awful lot that I would like to change, yet I seem to lack the determination to see things through. Perhaps being 30 will spur me to make those changes, quit smoking, eat a more balanced diet, more exercise. One thing I am certain of, is that my fear of death is likely to get worse until I can conquer some of these wishes.
I suspect that being 30, that feeling of immortality will go, and what I am left with, at the bottom of that pit, is an ugly beast, which lurked all my life.

However, I utterly love my wife-to-be, adore my children, and wouldn't change them for the world, that part of my life is complete and fulfilling, although I daresay I can make more of it.
My work life, is crushing me a little, lettings agent get little respect at the best of times, and I worry that my feelings of disdain will spill out onto the soulless wraiths that grab and paw at every penny, to the detriment of others happiness.
That was never my goal when I started out in this world, and its difficult to have a positive influence on the existence of others where I am now, but I suspect that the only way I would be happy confined to a place of employment would be to find something that gives something positive to the world.
After 4 years of this, spirit crushing job, I need to move on.

What else…… I could do with smiling more. This may sound odd, but I used to find so many things amusing, people, situations, myself(usually more than others I suspect).. where did the fun go?

I look around me and everything outside of my home and family is tinged with grey, to err on the side of poetic. I'd be a better human being, if I can see the brightness again, but I'm not sure how to open my eyes fully again (stop me if I'm getting too emo again, oh.. you can't… tough).

I think all in all, I'm optimistic. The first step in improving your "game", is to recognise your mistakes, and to be introspective about your faults. Well I can manage that, and I can see paths ahead that rebuild the equilibrium between work and family life, and learning how to smile again.

All in all, whilst this makes quite depressing reading, this is a positive post. I'm not sure I fear 30 as much as I thought now that I write it down, for all the happiness in my life, the aforementioned tinge of grey is conquerable, and I have faith in my mental resilience to see through positive changes.

To the beast that is my fear of death.


I'm All In.


Your Move.

(couldn't resist one poker reference, sorry!)

Stepping off the Gas

I've had a cold all week, and one area of my poker playing that I'm pleased with, is my discipline in not playing when mentally deficient in any way, and boy did this cold knock my brain sideways. Hence, I've played very little all week.

Especially after being on a bit of a heater recently, I'm keen to ensure I play at the top of my game. I played in a couple of sit n go's over the weekend, 20 cents, and a 10 cent step tournament and won them both continuing my winning streak, but I was unhappy with my play, in that the opposition were so weak, that I didn't feel like winning was any achievement, especially in the step tournament to the WSOP (0.10+2 buyin).  This isn't a brag, simply they folded to any raise, but called with a strong hand only.. makes things.. a little easy in terms of "reads".

I confirmed this by playing in the step 2 the following day and had a spectacular blowup, 4900 chip leader against 2100 2nd place, with only 6 players left. Badly timed aggression, stupid bluffs, and I busted out in 6th. Very very stupid and unnecessary when all I needed to do was get to 2nd to go up a step, and 3rd to stay at the same level.

Me and the missus had some drinks on Saturday and played some Pot Limit Omaha, which she roundly trounced me at after hitting an Ace high flush against my 8 high flush after running hearts post-flop. Omaha. Game of drawing to the nuts... not just any old flush.. my bad.

She went on to beat me at no limit hold'em, which I always feel I have the edge in, which didn't impress me. Fortunately the wine started to go to her head and I won 2 in a row to call the night a draw. We get far too competitive about these things, that we have to keep count.

(I'm up 14 to 6 on games so far.. I might even draw a graph).

I'm going to start studying up on Badugi, which looks like an interesting variation, and I like to keep myself well rounded. My weakest games are Seven Card Stud (High or Low), and 5 Card Draw, so I have a lot to really study up on. I like the idea of becoming a decent 8 game mix player, but this is far in the future with a lot of practice involved.

I'm a firm believer that mastering all the poker variations complement each other, and learning how to play each kind of game offers valuable skills in all other variations.

I'm still feeling a bit washed up, especially with my 30th birthday looming.... but thats for another day.

My Relationship with Ultimatebet

I really hate UltimateBet.  The scandal that broke out over the superuser account disgusted me, and I vowed never to touch them.

But then they gave me a free $50 bankroll! Yay!

I'm such a whore.

Played a couple more sit 'n' go.  Busted out on the bubble in the $1, made some moves to steal some pots, as I often do at bubble time, and ran into a big hand.  I feel fine with that, I make more money in the long run with the pot stealing plan.

$2 sitngo was hilarious fun, the final 3 players other than myself were total nits, aiming to make some money, and I had a big stack.  At one point I had won 18 out of the last 20 pots, with pure aggression... thats just SILLY... surely they must figure out I don't always have a hand in that situation.  But never mind.  I knocked them out one by one, and finally with 10800 chips vs 1200 chips, he slowplayed two pair and hit my flush.  Game Over, and I was really quite chuffed with how well I had played that tournament, controlling the table, being table leader for almost the entire game, making one exceptional call to double up through the only other big stack with second pair.  (I'm going with exceptional call, rather than donkey call if you please).

Sharkscope makes me look fierce at the moment my stats at the moment, Sit n Go and MTT.

Av. Profit      Av. Stake      Av. ROI      Total Profit Ability /100
$2                  $1                 87%            $166          72   


I'm certainly very pleased with this result and I hope I can maintain it.  But I've got a nasty cold at the moment, so I'm not playing.
Don't play when drunk or otherwise mentally befuddled kids.

Online Poker: Tired old dog that is 'rigged'

Is online poker rigged? Google it and the forum threads will go on forever about it.

After a few months playing cash games, I must confess I found some of the arguments compelling...
Action flops to induce more rake.
'Bad luck' runs when bankroll is short to induce more deposits.
'Beginners luck' runs to hook new players to the site.
Etc Etc and so on.

As always with a problem, be it religion, politics, chess, life and poker (listed in order of importance obviously), my head will torture me throughout the day until I work through the issue logically until I obtain a conclusion... be it right or wrong, the important bit is not the answer, but that the conclusion is entirely (or at least mostly) a product of my own reasoning, rather than a dronelike regurgitation of peer or preferential opinion.
This is not the friend winning process it appears to be.

Anyway, the point I want to make, is that I don't know if i'm right, but i'd like to express the process I took to reach the opinion.
The first thought process occurs along the lines of whether the proposed theory of rigged poker fits in with my own experience.
First Thought: omgz yez cos this one time i flopped a straight n lossed 8 dollas cos i went all in n got called, but the guy only had like second pair, but then hit a backdoor by the river.... Omg so sick!
Second thought (after taking the first thought process out the back and disembowelling it with a blunt spoon). How did this situation occur?
Well to be honest, i'd got into the habit of making continuation bets, and from my regular range (ducks arse range) middle cards were most certainly not in my usual range.
The logical play in this situation for my opponent is to raise, since calling with second pair is too weak once you've established that it is merely a continuation bet.
With a flopped straight, i can either smooth call or re-raise back. I prefer the re-raise as very few people throw away a re-raise without calling a repop at low limits. Very easy to go all in with this situation. Especially against weaker players.

Is this situation valid? Actually no, it shouldn't be, because i am crediting the low limit player with higher than stage 1 thinking. But it does serve as a scenario as to why a large pot occurs on a marginal hand.
This. Happens. A. Lot. Online. Large pots happening, and all-in a regular occurance.
This might seem to be off track, but i am getting to my point.
You don't normally see this happen as often, so it stands to reason you see runner runner wins against the odds more often.
The poker player natural state of ill-conceived superiority does not meld well with this regularity of occurance. The brain does not allow it.
I know i do it. Only recently i was knocked out of a mtt on the final table when my flopped flush turned into a full house for my villain by the river. I remember it vividly, yet i struggle to remember the exact details when earlier in the same tournament, i was all in for my tournament life and hit runner runner flushes against stronger hands. Twice.
My mind doesn't retain the information for getting lucky but it remembers OTHER PEOPLE getting lucky with unnerving accuracy.

So in short, I can't help but feel that a combination of bad players, and lots and lots of hands, combined with a psychological inability to compare bad situations all mount up to the feeling that the world is out to get you.

In shorter.  You suck.

With 'bad luck' runs as your bankroll is small to force another deposit... but I have to say, I almost instantly dismiss this on the basis that when you are worried about your bankroll, you make bad decisions.  Simples.

Watching High Stakes Poker Season 2 at the moment, and watching Daniel Negreanu flop the nuts 3 times, and have somebody hit quads against him by the river 3 times? Was it rigged, well obviously not.  If that happened online, there would be an INQUIRY!

So this is where my mind is at... it easier to blame the system than your own bad play, and most players are psychologically incapable of admitting this.

Superuser accounts on the other hand, well, the fuss at UltimateBet was pretty damning.  I suspect a superuser account is less of a risk at micro 0.02/0.04 limits.

Busting Out In Style

So I had a nap, a shower, was raring to go on Friday.

And played the worst poker for quite some time.

We started the game with a couple of guys, whom we will call "accountant chap" and "bowling ball chap", sitting next to each other, obviously friends having a little speech about how the top 2 league players are on this table. Can't say that bothered me, but please see previous posts on arrogance. Do not warn your opponents! F.F.S.

I'm determined to be tight, 10 handed, and after 3 hands, it limps in and I'm holding KJo. Well, thats got to be worth the small blind at least at 25/50 level.

Flop comes down K Q J rainbow and I guess I looked surprised, because "bowling ball chap" comments, "That was a good flop for you" to me. W*nker, seeing as he wasn't in the hand, I felt that was pretty out of order to say that.

I guess I tilted. Pot is 300, so I led out with 300, and got 3 callers. That can't be good for 2 pair on a board like that, but I can guess that at least one of them has a pair. The turn is a 3, which continues the rainbow theme and certainly shouldn't help anybody. I guess I may well be good, but I'd rather represent a straight, instead of a two pair. So I throw 600 in, 1 call, and 2 folds.

Thats better! I wonder what this guy has? Surely not flopping a straight with AK, he would have raised on the big blind with that. 9 10 on the big blind and that flop also strikes me as far too fortunate.

River is a 6, again not helping anybody, so my stupid head thinks I'm good, I lead out again with 1200. I'm sure those reading this, can probably see how badly this is getting played, out of position on a dangerous board. BB min raises to 2400.

Uhoh. And I pay him off. 9 10 off suit it was in the big blind. Lovely. KJ no good, and one of the turn folders mentions he had the same hand.

I honestly felt like an idiot, especially when the same thing happened to me last time. Not learning from my mistakes is me.

With 500 chips, I continue my theme of crap play. 3xBB raise with A 8s, flop comes down 5 3 Q, and the big blind bets, I fold (He shows 5 3o.. F.F.S), and I finally put my last 350 in with A9s.

Called by the CO with pocket nines.

Shortest tournament ever. I feel pretty disappointed, as I promised myself I would throw 2 pair in situations like this, this early in the tournament. Sometimes thou, my clear thinking when playing online just fails live occasionally. I know I would have gotten away from it online after 2 smooth calls. I blame bowling ball guy. Talking about a tell he picked up when he's NOT in the hand. Bad bad manners.

But I played bad, I got knocked out. Can't really complain.

*mope*

We're having a freezeout tonight!

Better half is having a girlie night with friends on a Twilight marathon with wine.

Sounds like a good time to escape to the casino for tonights £20+2 buyin that I've had so much success with.  Its a bit of a weird tournament, in that I hate the fact that it is 10 handed tables, which basically means your strategy is; NIT NIT NIT, dropping anything weaker than AQo, 88+ and playing the hands aggressively, coupled with any opportunities based on observation of other players.

Please god let this not be a "everyone limp into the pot" table again, that was excruciating last time, but lucrative until I overvalued top 2 pair against somebodies idiot end of the straight, stupid me making 54o a +EV play.  Everytime I raised, the whole table muttered to themselves!
Made me wonder whether they were playing a different variation of poker to me.

I say nit (ultra-tight) but frankly I'll have to see how the table dynamics go.  I also made a new promise to myself, "Do not go bust on a pair", if I have AKo on a K 8 2 rainbow board, don't call the all-in, let it go and wait for a better spot if they bluff that way.  I have a tendancy sometimes to feel internally indignant that someone could outflop AK in that situation.

Finishing work early to prepare (ie. shower), thank god.  Struggling to cope with the bizarre antics of landlords and tenants.
Tenant today has given away all the furniture to her brother.  For no real reason.  Hilarity ensues.

Landlord has decided that maybe she shouldn't try to keep the whole security bond for a scratch on a table, when she "forgot" to renew the very very important gas safety certificate since the tenant moved in, and the tenant turns out to be a litigation solicitor in a bad mood.  Hilarity ensues.

WHEN I cash tonight, I think a treat is in order for the weekend.

Alternatively my next post will be some sort of spitting incomprehensible rant about somebody calling KK with A4 and winning.

Arrogance at the Table

Now, I've not played a ton of live poker, a few tournaments barely counts as experience.  Yet, it occurs to me, that those whom have plenty of experience lack one important skill.
Self Control.
You have to open your mouth, and warn the fish that they play bad.  This isn't random either, I've been on the receiving end of a scathing remark, and weighing up the facts.  Yes. I should not have called a raise with just a gutshot and one over card.  You are indeed correct.
So I improve my game.
Not a smart move on behalf of the gobby wannabe-pro.

In this game, more than ever, you want to encourage bad play by others.  Even if it works out badly for you in the short run, the common acceptance is that in the long run, other peoples bad play will work for you.

So, when I sit there, and hit my gutshot straight, which I should never have called your 1/3rd pot raise chasing (I know it was bad).  Do not berate me.  Congratulate me on the hand confident knowing your chips are on loan.

Do not however, proceed to lambast such play.  Not only is it hard to hear you whilst I'm stacking your chips, but congratulate me on hitting such an unlikely big hand.

However, such is the psyche of the poker player so often, that in their head, they are unbeatable.  They play perfect poker, and only the bad luck of the cards is the reason they lose.

So take these three steps on a suck-out;

1) Smile - Be unbothered by the beat, you are not so superior to the other players, that they haven't been watching and know fine well what a bad play the other person made.  Your grace under these conditions is fearsome.
2) Congratulate the Winner on Such a FINE HAND - Happy Players Chasing Straights and Flushes - Are Profitable (unless you play online in which case, naturally they hit 33% odds 75% of the time).
3) Start Instructing Your Chips to March Forth and Recruit Others - Preferably before the blinds increase

An Introduction

I never cared for diaries. I always felt that I should never be looking backwards, and always look ahead.

Can't really remember any other reasons. If I kept a diary I would have remembered.

I've been playing poker for a year, getting hooked on it playing Zyngas free poker on Facebook and realising I "got it" straight away. I was winning easily without having any basic idea how to play, simply playing too many hands was my major fault, and shoving all my chips in with strong hands that were at least 2 removed from the nuts.

Now its a year later, I've racked up a few (6) live tournaments at the local casino and cashed in two of them, and I play extremely regularly online (Full Tilt & Ultimate Bet(I'll explain why in a future blog) for small profits.

So this blog is mostly for my own musings, but welcome anybody wanting to throw in their five cents (or raise to fifteen cents.. ba dum tish).

For all those players whom a nights profit of $2.40 is cause for a fist pump, and a final table in a $1 MTT is cause for a whooping celebration and victory lap around the house.

For all those players who get their money in good with pocket tens on a J 10 J rainbow board and lose to J 10.

For all those.. players, not pros, but for the love of the game.